Funnel analysis for Ryan Lutke: what the winners sell, how, and what helps him most

Josh-CC 2026-10-16. Models: the 12 SUCCESSFUL brands (100K+ followers), with Horton (MID) as reference only. After Athletics and Motive were dropped. This is for discussion with Josh and Ryan, not a final decision. 1. His problem is after the comment, not before it. Six May-July "Comment PRACTICE" reels got ~2,900 comments, which turned into ~15 members. Almost every step after the comment is broken or contradicts itself. Fix that first (high confidence). 2. Freebie = one real Practice session as a 20-min follow-along, with knee/hip/back/shoulder swaps and a "how much is enough" rule. GMB, Theory of Motion and JTM give away a real slice of the paid thing. It also answers his audience's #1 question. 3. The CTA names the size and the problem, and the bio, caption and landing page all promise the same thing (GMB pattern). E.g. "Comment PRACTICE and I'll send you a free 20-minute session for former athletes with cranky knees, hips or backs." 4. Bridge = video on the thank-you page with the Practice pitch right under it, then ~5 short emails and a first-month offer (GMB thank-you page, Theory of Motion THEORY50 code, ATG half-off first month). 5. Stay always open, with a monthly start day. All 12 successful brands sell their core offer on any day. Closed doors only show up on high-ticket cohorts. 6. Keep $19.99 (5 of 9 subscription brands sit at $19-25). Add an annual plan and a 7-day trial or half-off first month (7 of 9 do one of these). Later: move form checks into a $39-49 coached tier (ATG, Luka). Don't copy: countdown paywalls (Prehab), 20+ screen quizzes, AI-template sites (ATG), giant claims ("2.6M", "250k clients", "40% fewer injuries"), bonus stacks and stale deadlines (Rusin), affiliate links in the bio. Biggest unknown: what "Comment PRACTICE" sends today and where people drop off. Pull ManyChat + Systeme numbers before building anything.

Paths below are under /Users/joshliu/ryan-lutke/research/. Short source names:

• F/<slug> = funnels/<slug>/walk.md (screenshots are in the same folder)
• FRB = round2/freebies-as-buyer.md
• O20 = round2/offer-vs-20.md
• ANS = round2/ANSWERS.md
• SYN = SYNTHESIS.md
• Scale = funnels/scale.md

Step 1. Method

• Weight by scale. Only the 12 SUCCESSFUL brands count as models. Horton (50K, MID) is used for ideas only, and small brands are footnotes. A pattern several big brands use beats one used by a single brand. Followers prove attention, not revenue, so paid-customer signals count extra: Prehab (1,707 app ratings), GMB (2,106 reviews), ATG (219 ratings).
• Map every brand's chain the same way: IG entry -> freebie -> bridge (thank-you page, emails) -> paid offer -> price and terms (trial, annual, guarantee, urgency) -> higher tiers. The product ladder runs free -> low ticket -> core -> high ticket.
• Separate what we saw from what we guess.
  • Seen: pages, prices, checkouts, and emails that arrived.
  • Not seen: what comment keywords send (no IG login), anything after a card, and emails after ~20 min.
  • Inboxes were re-checked today and no brand had sent anything new. 8 of 12 sent nothing at all, and some probably filter our throwaway domain. So "no nurture" is a weak signal.
• Group brands by the engine they run, not by surface tactics. Four engines showed up (Step 3). Then ask which engine fits a one-person, one-program business with 29K followers.
• Check fit against Lutke's constraints:
  • 1 day/week for this business
  • one program for everyone, $19.99 on EverFit
  • Systeme + ManyChat
  • 29K IG followers: 46% women, 56% aged 35-54
  • his audience's top need: "how much is too much, and which swap is safe for me?" (SYN 0.4)

Step 2. What they offer and how they sell it

2a. Product ladders (prices as seen 2026-10-16)

2b. How they sell it

Notes per brand

• Squat U and Movement by David: a giant audience covers a weak funnel. Squat U has no working email list at all. Not a model for a 29K account.
• ATG: the clearest ladder. It is one app at three prices, and the only difference is human time. The quiz shows the result before asking for anything. Copy the ladder, not the AI-looking site.
• Prehab: strongest paid proof, but the most manipulative funnel: countdown timer, a "results" page that is only a paywall, and $49 monthly as a decoy.
• Theory of Motion: Lutke's twin, same $19.99 and same monthly 4-week block. The freebie is a real sample week, and the pitch sits inside the PDF and email 1. It sells 2/3/4-day and gym/home versions, which he lacks.
• JTM: best first email: short, personal, one job, no pitch.
• E3 (Josh likes it): organized by body part everywhere. Comment GUIDE gets ~800 comments per post. Weak bridge: emails never point to the matching program. Its FIFA 11+ warm-up is the only soccer freebie in the set.
• Ready State: good persona landing page. Bad result screen (4 numbers, no free help) and too many offers.
• Rusin: good name and a clear weekly structure. Hype and stale deadlines everywhere.
• Jeremy Scott: the Athletic Combine (test before day 1, retest at the end) is a cheap way to show progress. Uses the reader's own words: "I used to be athletic."
• GMB: the cleanest small-team funnel. One promise across bio, keyword and page. The free video is a piece of the paid program, the pitch sits under the video, and the guarantee is tied to a fast result.
• Luka: closest positioning to Lutke, worst funnel. Use for positioning ideas only.
• Footnotes (SMALL, not models):
  • Motive / Kinstretch (1K IG) is the only offer under $35 with video form review ($24). Useful only as a price point.
  • After Athletics has no Instagram. The 8-follower account was an unrelated non-profit, never theirs (Scale).

Step 3. Analysis

3a. Four engines, weighted by scale

3b. What the biggest players have in common (counts out of 12)

1. Always open: 12 of 12. Deadlines appear only as framing over an open cart or on high-ticket cohorts. Lutke's monthly-only window: 0 of 12.
2. Lower first-month risk. Of the 9 subscription brands:
   • 5 have a 7-day trial and 2 a half-off first month.
   • Rusin has a guarantee.
   • Only Squat U offers nothing. Lutke offers nothing.
3. Annual plan: 7 of 9. Lutke has none.
4. Price. Core monthly prices run $19 to $69. $19.99 is normal, not cheap.
5. Human time costs more. ATG charges $49.50 for form checks, E3 coaching is $325+/mo, Luka is $39. Lutke gives form checks + a monthly call + DMs at $19.99. None of the 14 offers checked at $10-35 bundles all three (O20 3).
6. Organized by body part: 6 of 12. This matches "which swap is safe for me?".
7. One method name and one clear promise per brand.
8. Comment keyword for a free thing: 5 of 12. Each names a concrete thing with a size. Lutke's October captions just say "a free workout".

3c. What differs

• One-time vs subscription: GMB, E3 and Movement by David sell one-time programs. The rest are subscriptions.
• Trial vs discount code: depends on the checkout platform. What EverFit supports is unknown.
• Where the email gate sits:
  • ATG asks for nothing until sign-up.
  • Prehab and Ready State gate after a lot of effort.
  • GMB and Theory of Motion ask for email first but deliver in seconds.
• Nurture: mostly unseen. The bar looks low, so a decent 5-email sequence is likely an edge (guess).

3d. Copyable by one person with 1 day/week

• A comment keyword that promises a named, sized free session (GMB, JTM, E3). His ManyChat is already set up.
• A free session that is a real piece of The Practice (GMB, Theory of Motion). One filming afternoon.
• Deliver the video on the thank-you page with the pitch underneath (GMB). One Systeme page.
• Put the pitch inside the freebie and email 1, with a first-month offer (Theory of Motion).
• A short personal first email with one job (JTM).
• One body-part question at opt-in, used to tag emails (E3). A Systeme tag.
• IG highlights by body part (E3, Squat U).
• State the price plainly (ATG).
• An annual plan, plus a trial or half-off first month.
• Test on day 1, retest on day 28 (Jeremy Scott).
• Later, a higher price for human time (ATG, Luka).

3e. Do NOT copy

• Countdown timers, a "results" page that is only a paywall, decoy pricing (Prehab).
• Long quizzes or app-matched programs. He has one program.
• AI/template-looking sites (ATG).
• Giant or unsourced claims ("2.6M", "250k clients", "100,000+", "40%").
• Bonus stacks, stale deadlines, conditional guarantees.
• Scores with no free help (Ready State).
• B2B or affiliate links in the consumer bio. His sauna and Legion links are the same problem.
• Heavy friction: bot checks, forced accounts, a card for a "$0" offer.
• Mass-market positioning already owned by bigger accounts: "athlete in everyone", "after 40", "3 planes of motion". His open ground: former athletes with an old injury, soccer/groin, and a CSCS trainer who answers form questions himself.

Step 4. What helps Lutke most (ranked, best first)

1. Fix his own funnel first. Confidence: High

Cause -> effect: the top of the funnel works (~2,900 comments) but only ~15 people became members, so the leak is after the comment (FRB 1a). Fix list (F/lutke, FRB 1b):

1. Find out what "Comment PRACTICE" sends today, and pull ManyChat numbers (comments -> DMs -> emails -> buyers). The one automated DM Meta allows should send the link, not ask for an email first.
2. Use one date everywhere. Today: IG bio says November, Linktree says October, waitlist email says Sept 28 (already past).
3. The waitlist email goes out 3 times. Fix it to send once.
4. The quiz email says "shoulder" when the buyer picked knees. The quiz also redirects to a GHL preview URL, runs on someone else's domain, has no groin option, and promises "pain relief", which clashes with his not-for list. Retire it or rebuild it.
5. Kill the Mighty Networks Practice. Every button should go to the EverFit $19.99 page.
6. Add the buy page to Linktree. Remove the sauna and Legion links.
7. Add what it is, the price, the start date, and his face to the waitlist page.
8. The $25 manual is labelled "Free" and still has a "[Ryan]" placeholder. Fix or remove it.
9. Site fixes: placeholder social links, Blog "#", GHL preview links, blank page titles, a Book Now calendar with no slots.
10. Remove the YouTube "before Labor Day, never raise the price" line, and grandfather anyone who joined under it.

2. Freebie: one real ~20-min Practice session as a follow-along. Confidence: High-Medium

• Build it with swaps for knee, hip/groin, back and shoulder, plus a stop rule.
• End with: "This is one of 12 sessions a month in The Practice."
• Evidence: GMB REBOOT20 (1,358 comments, 2,106 reviews) and Theory of Motion (sample week, same price) do this. His best long videos are follow-alongs, and it answers the dose and swap question (SYN).
• Risk: it has to show his injury lens, or it is just another free workout.
• Later option: a 10-min rec-league warm-up (E3 pattern).

3. Comment CTA: size, problem, and who it's for. Confidence: High

• Use the same promise in the caption, the DM, the bio and the page (GMB).
• Go back toward the May-July wording (93-853 comments per reel). October's wording got 651-1,689 plays.
• Say "former athlete", not "retired".
• Use wording that also works for women, who are 46% of his followers.
• One keyword everywhere means one automation to maintain.

4. Bridge. Confidence: Medium-High

• Flow: DM link -> page asking for email and one body-part question -> instant video -> Practice pitch with price and date underneath.
• Email 1 (JTM style): "do this today".
• Emails 2-5: the swap for their body part, his groin story, what's inside, what a member week looks like, then the offer.
• Put a first-month offer in the freebie and in email 1 (Theory of Motion, ATG).
• Keep sending free sessions between start days (Horton).

5. Enrollment: always open, with one shared start day per month. Confidence: Medium

• All 12 successful brands keep their core offer open.
• Framing like "Next block starts Monday X, join any time" keeps the urgency and the shared week 1, and stops losing people who show up mid-month.
• This is his call. The survey data favoring open enrollment is correlation only.

6. Packaging. Confidence: Medium

• Keep $19.99.
• Add an annual plan, around $199/yr.
• Add a 7-day trial or half-off first month, whichever EverFit supports.
• Keep his human time for now, but batch form checks. When he has 50-100 members, add a coached tier at $39-49 (O20 4-5).
• Say on the page that Ryan himself answers.
• Over time, build 2-day, 4-day and home/gym versions plus body-part swaps.
• Run a day 1 / day 28 retest to get real numbers.

7. Later: a "Former Athlete Check". Confidence: Low-Medium

Show the result before asking for email (ATG). Only do this once The Practice has body-part swaps the result can point to.

Limits

• "Successful" was judged by followers plus paid signals, not revenue.
• Comment DMs could not be tested.
• 8 of 12 brands sent no email (re-checked 2026-10-16).
• No data yet from his 15 members.
• Not yet checked whether EverFit supports trials, coupons or annual billing.